Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – Dec 2020 

Key Events:

• Nifty (+11.4%) rallied sharply in November, as a global risk-on triggered by a Biden victory, positive vaccine developments and dollar weakness (DXY fell by ~2.3% in Nov) led to strong inflows into EM markets
• FIIs pumped in ~$9.4bn into India equities (highest ever monthly net inflows) partly driven by MSCI rebalance, as >$2bn of passive inflows were expected due to increase in Foreign Ownership Limits in various stocks
• DIIs on the other hand, continued to remain net sellers including Domestic MFs as equity funds witnessed fourth consecutive month of net outflow in October as redemptions grew 20% vs September
• Deceleration in real GDP growth moderated to -7.5% y/y in 2Q (vs -23.9% in 1Q). Rebound was led by manufacturing (+0.6% y/y vs -39.3% in 1Q) while subdued govt. spending dragged growth
• CPI spiked to 7.6% in October, highest print since May’14 while core CPI also rose slightly to 5.8%. While inflationary pressures were broad based, food items led the sharp jump, partly due to unseasonal rains
• Govt’s latest measures focused on urban consumption, infrastructure and Covid-affected sectors. Moreover, loan guarantee scheme was extended to 26 stressed sectors and healthcare
• RBI released a pro-growth monetary policy decision. Kept Repo and Reverse Repo rate unchanged

Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – September 2020.

Key Events:

·         1Q FY21 Real GDP growth contracted by 23.9% YoY, weaker than the street estimates. Led by a strict lockdown and labor migration, construction was the worst hit, followed by trade, hotels, transport and communication. 

·         MPC took a pause in the rate easing cycle while refraining from giving any specific forecasts on growth & inflation given heightened uncertainty.

·         July’s CPI print of 6.9% (v/s 6.2% in June) drastically reduced chances of a rate cut for the rest of this fiscal year. RBI’s recent policy statement had predicted inflation to stay elevated till Sep and see moderation in 2HFY21.

·         India’s trade balance turned to a deficit of ~$4.8bn in July are a rare surplus of ~$0.8bn in June, as gold and other imports started to pick-up. Exports in July were down ~10% in July at $23.6bn while imports at $28.4bn.

·         India’s fiscal deficit stood at Rs8.2trn at the end of July, at ~103% of the budgeted target for the current fiscal year. Sharp fall in tax receipts coupled with resilient government expenditure led to the high deficit in the period.

·         After an erratic July, August witnessed excess rainfall of 26%, highest print since 1901. Rainfall is already at a record in states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha.

·         Indian Equities moved slightly higher (Nifty +2.8%) in August.

Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – August 2020

Key Events: 

·         Nifty (+7.5%) made new highs (breaching 200DMA & 11k for the first time since March fall) in July but more than half of its gains were contributed by just two stocks.

·         After a sharp recovery (>+50%) from April lows, activity levels peaked in early-July and were still >15% below pre-Covid levels.

·         The MPC, unanimously, kept the repo rate unchanged at 4% but retained the ‘accommodative’ stance.

·         Headline CPI moderated to 6.1% for June after peaking at 7.2% in April. Core Inflation at 5.1% was still elevated in June suggesting that despite the subdued demand, the supply disruption led CPI to spike

·         After almost 18 years, India reported a trade surplus of $0.8bn in June driven by broad-based export rebound and still weak import demand. Oil imports were suppressed by low oil, but non-oil trade improved sharply

·         Centre’s fiscal deficit during 1Q of this fiscal stood at ~83% of Budget Estimate. Reports suggested that actual fiscal deficit for FY21 could be as high as 7.6%, almost 2x budget