Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – September 2020.

Key Events:

·         1Q FY21 Real GDP growth contracted by 23.9% YoY, weaker than the street estimates. Led by a strict lockdown and labor migration, construction was the worst hit, followed by trade, hotels, transport and communication. 

·         MPC took a pause in the rate easing cycle while refraining from giving any specific forecasts on growth & inflation given heightened uncertainty.

·         July’s CPI print of 6.9% (v/s 6.2% in June) drastically reduced chances of a rate cut for the rest of this fiscal year. RBI’s recent policy statement had predicted inflation to stay elevated till Sep and see moderation in 2HFY21.

·         India’s trade balance turned to a deficit of ~$4.8bn in July are a rare surplus of ~$0.8bn in June, as gold and other imports started to pick-up. Exports in July were down ~10% in July at $23.6bn while imports at $28.4bn.

·         India’s fiscal deficit stood at Rs8.2trn at the end of July, at ~103% of the budgeted target for the current fiscal year. Sharp fall in tax receipts coupled with resilient government expenditure led to the high deficit in the period.

·         After an erratic July, August witnessed excess rainfall of 26%, highest print since 1901. Rainfall is already at a record in states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha.

·         Indian Equities moved slightly higher (Nifty +2.8%) in August.

Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – August 2020

Key Events: 

·         Nifty (+7.5%) made new highs (breaching 200DMA & 11k for the first time since March fall) in July but more than half of its gains were contributed by just two stocks.

·         After a sharp recovery (>+50%) from April lows, activity levels peaked in early-July and were still >15% below pre-Covid levels.

·         The MPC, unanimously, kept the repo rate unchanged at 4% but retained the ‘accommodative’ stance.

·         Headline CPI moderated to 6.1% for June after peaking at 7.2% in April. Core Inflation at 5.1% was still elevated in June suggesting that despite the subdued demand, the supply disruption led CPI to spike

·         After almost 18 years, India reported a trade surplus of $0.8bn in June driven by broad-based export rebound and still weak import demand. Oil imports were suppressed by low oil, but non-oil trade improved sharply

·         Centre’s fiscal deficit during 1Q of this fiscal stood at ~83% of Budget Estimate. Reports suggested that actual fiscal deficit for FY21 could be as high as 7.6%, almost 2x budget

Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – July 2020

·       Nifty (up +7.5%) finally decoupled from the US markets (S&P up only +1.8%) and outperformed during June.

·       Despite the headwinds, Indian markets continued to rise due to high foreign inflows (+$2.5bn, highest monthly inflows in 2020) and marginal domestic institutional buying (+$0.3bn). In sectorial trends, all sectors were up v/s May with Realty and Banks at the top.

·       After the border clash with China led to 20 Indian casualties, the Indian forces deployed along the 3500-km border were given “full freedom” to counter any aggressive Chinese behavior . Later both countries, however, agreed on a “step-wise mutual disengagement” from areas of friction in Ladakh averting further escalation. 

·       IMF projected a deeper 4.5% contraction (vs -1.9% in April) for India in FY21 citing a longer lockdown period and slower than anticipated recovery. FY22 growth forecasted at +6% vs +7.4% earlier.

·       Moody’s downgraded India’s rating to Baa3, last level of investment grade rating, while keeping outlook as negative. whereas Fitch reaffirmed BBB- rating but changed the outlook to negative. S&P retained BBB- rating with a stable outlook. 

·       The gross GST revenue collected in the month of June, 2020 is Rs 90,917 crore.

·       The India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 47.2 in June, compared with 30.8 in May.

·       May merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a decade low $3.2bn on weak crude and faster recovery in exports vs imports.

·       RBI’s FX reserves hit a record $500bn on portfolio inflows and lower trade deficit.