Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – July 2020

·       Nifty (up +7.5%) finally decoupled from the US markets (S&P up only +1.8%) and outperformed during June.

·       Despite the headwinds, Indian markets continued to rise due to high foreign inflows (+$2.5bn, highest monthly inflows in 2020) and marginal domestic institutional buying (+$0.3bn). In sectorial trends, all sectors were up v/s May with Realty and Banks at the top.

·       After the border clash with China led to 20 Indian casualties, the Indian forces deployed along the 3500-km border were given “full freedom” to counter any aggressive Chinese behavior . Later both countries, however, agreed on a “step-wise mutual disengagement” from areas of friction in Ladakh averting further escalation. 

·       IMF projected a deeper 4.5% contraction (vs -1.9% in April) for India in FY21 citing a longer lockdown period and slower than anticipated recovery. FY22 growth forecasted at +6% vs +7.4% earlier.

·       Moody’s downgraded India’s rating to Baa3, last level of investment grade rating, while keeping outlook as negative. whereas Fitch reaffirmed BBB- rating but changed the outlook to negative. S&P retained BBB- rating with a stable outlook. 

·       The gross GST revenue collected in the month of June, 2020 is Rs 90,917 crore.

·       The India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 47.2 in June, compared with 30.8 in May.

·       May merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a decade low $3.2bn on weak crude and faster recovery in exports vs imports.

·       RBI’s FX reserves hit a record $500bn on portfolio inflows and lower trade deficit.

• India Inc over the last 3 years has seen multiple shocks – from demonetisation to key reforms like GST, RERA etc. to credit freeze in aftermath of wholesale NBFC unable to get access to credit to current lockdown amidst the global supply and demand shock unleashed by Coronavirus. In the long journey of corporate India, these events almost seems like a big RESET button. A call to significantly change business practices, realign key business priorities in a changing landscape and massive consolidation across sectors.

• ·       Covid19 – while initial impact was localised to Chinese economy and therefore the supply shock given large export from China, the spread of virus globally now risks creating a demand shock as well. While global coordination of policy makers and containment of virus and improvement in drugs to counter will reduce the longer term impacts of this shock, near-term demand and supply chains remain frozen amidst a significant drop in economic activity. We are slowly emerging from lockdown to phases of ‘unlocking’ the economy.

• ·       While Indian government & RBI have announced few measures, we expect more measures to be announced given the unprecedented nature of events led by Covid 19. Amidst this uncertainty, Indian equities have seen large up and down moves in recent months.

• ·       While near term uncertainty induces volatility in asset prices, in the long run, wealth creation in equities is a function as how businesses can profitably grow over their cost of capital sustainably. Given the long-range of reforms introduced as well as likely relief measures by government & RBI, we believe longer-term prospects of Indian equities is quite encouraging and we would advise investors to benefit from such induced volatility.

• ·       Time in the market is more important than timing the market - recently, markets volatility has moved up and investors can benefit from this volatility by focusing on disciplined investing and asset allocation.

·                India FY 21 Q4 GDP numbers came in at 3.1%, dragging the full year growth at 4.2%. While the Q4 GDP was slightly higher than expectations, all previous GDP figures for FY 20 were revised downward between 4-7 basis points.

·                The government also came up with its increased borrowing plan for FY 21 in the month of May revised to Rs. 12 lakh crore from 7.8 lakh crore, taking the weekly borrowing to Rs. 30000 crore. However as the economy is in Risk off mode with low credit off take, the increased demand for government bonds has kept the yields anchored.

·                Shortly after the increased the Finance minister announced the “Aatmanirbhar” economic relief package of Rs 20 lakh crore.

·                We saw unprecedented swing in the OIL markets, the oil trading in the range of 20 to 37 dollars a barrel. Overall lower OIL and commodity prices in generally beneficial for the country. The slowdown in demand has helped to lower the trade deficit that could eventually lead to a rare surplus in current account.

·                On 22nd May the RBI Governor cut the policy rate by 40 basis points, taking the repo rate to 4%. This is the second unscheduled rate cut given by the Reserve Bank.